There seems to be a lot of confusion on the unemployment numbers as of late, and with little wonder because for the unemployment to drop to 7.8 from 8.2 the economy would have to be growing at the speed of light practically… this is not unusual when dealing with the obama administration however, it seems they have run their who term on lies and dishonesty
DOL is saying this week there is another major drop in unemployment claims, take a look…
One state accounted for most of the plunge in claims, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were issued to the press.
And from the WSJ:
“However, the report may not be as positive as the sharp drop indicates. A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.”
Initially, rumors started circulating that an entire state’s worth of jobless claims was excluded.
The DoL was not immediately available to comment.
However, CNBC’s Kelly Evans is reporting that the discrepancy is that “one state did not process & report its typical seasonal workload” and that a rebound next week is likely.
Here is the Business Insider Update
Business Insider spoke to an analyst at the Labor Department. According to this analyst, here’s what happened:
ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week’s jobless claims. Assertions that “a large state” was excluded from the report are patently false.
It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state–California–were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state’s jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week.
California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week’s jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week’s or the following week’s. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected.
The source believes that the number of California claims that were not processed might have totaled about 15,000-25,000. Thus, if one were to “normalize” the overall not-seasonally-adjusted jobless claims number, it would increase by about 15,000-25,000.
This week’s “normalized” jobless claims number, therefore, might be about 355,000-365,000, not the 339,000 that was reported. This compares to the 370,000 consensus expectation.
In other words, had all of California’s jobless claims been processed in time to make the jobless-claims release, this jobless number would still have been better than economists were expecting–but not as much better as it appeared.
Again, the as-yet-unprocessed claims will appear in future reports. So next week’s number may well be higher than expected.
So, who’s right about today’s jobless claims number?
It seems everyone’s right!
Jobless claims were better than expected, even after adjusting for a possible unusual anomaly
There may have been an unusual anomaly that made this week’s jobless claims look better than they would otherwise have been.